Expect big changes in the hobby in 2023

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It’s a new year. We spend this time looking ahead, making goals and thinking about what the year may bring.

Inevitably, there will be changes.

And the hobby will be no different.

Big changes have been happening in the industry for the last year, ever since Fanatics announced its acquisition of Topps. Many of the changes have been happening in the background, while some of them have been in plain sight.

Topps made big mistakes (ex: Topps Chrome Rookie Card debacle), but then worked at fixing them with programs such as the Silver Packs and MVP Buyback Program.

Its messaging and social media have changed a bit, but that may not be as noticeable. Topps has partnered with more breakers, celebs, and media outlets.

But those background changes may have bigger ramifications on collectors. Topps has quietly changed the way it has solicited and distributed product.

It’s already 2023, and we don’t know anything about 2023 Topps Baseball Series 1 other than what the base cards looks like.

In the past, collectors would have been counting down the days until the release, which normally occurs the week after the Super Bowl. But we don’t even have a release date for Series 1 yet.

Hopefully, at least a date will be announced soon.

This change also effects store owners and distributors, as their planning and budgeting is affected by the short order windows.

Prior to Fanatics purchasing Topps, the card company solicited product three to six months in advance. They were a made-to-order company, meaning they only made the amount of product ordered in a specific window. While there were times Topps would take on extra inventory, it usually didn’t want to hold product.

Now it seems as though Topps has changed that model, closer to the way that Panini does it. The companies forecast how much product they expect or even want to sell, and then build to that number instead.

It has backfired a bit already. Topps is still pushing Chrome on stores.

The way you will see this change is more stores will likely be required to buy more product that is sitting in the warehouse that Topps couldn’t sell to get more of the lucrative products. So, store owners and distributors get stuck with unmovable product.

This isn’t new. Those who have been around the hobby for several years have seen this pattern before. Store owners have been living it for more than a decade.

What does that mean for 2023?

I think there will be more product on shelves, not necessarily for cheaper though. Products cost more from the card companies and those costs are passed on to collectors.

Collectors will be in for more surprises since we won’t have months to dissect sell sheets – but this also allows companies to not promise something on a sell sheet that won’t wind up in the product later.

Collectors will be more discerning with their money. As products increase in value and the overall market sees a downward shift, collectors are going to be a bit more careful with how they spend money.

This is just the foundation to what 2023 will be like. The rest of the year will be filled with plenty of surprises, moves we didn’t see coming, and plenty of headscratchers.

What do you expect to see in 2023?