What Topps Project 2020 says about our times, our hobby, and ourselves
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What Topps Project 2020 says about our times, our hobby, and ourselves
For one week in May, the card collecting world was ablaze. Cards sold on the secondary market for way above their regular selling prices. Wax couldn’t be had for anywhere near MSRP. And Topps Project 2020 cards were selling for the price of an iPad.
The price of cards had skyrocketed, but it was different than other points over the past couple of decades. The surge wasn’t about autographed cards or cards with a manufactured scarcity.
While some of the prices on the secondary market have come back down, it’s still not cheap if you want to collect the full set.
Experts and longtime hobbyists have pointed to different reasons for the spike, but there were a series of factors, some years in the making and others very sudden, that contributed to the price fluctuations.
How did the hobby get here?
Safe at home
Many of us were recently facing lockdowns or quarantined, so we had to find a way to get through the days. Less commuting and more time at home gave people extra time to look at things long forgotten. Think about how you work: you do one task, then maybe another and now you’re on Twitter checking out the latest conversation. You complete another task and the Blowout Cards forum is calling your name.
All of this time led people – some who had been out of the hobby for decades – to see what was new with trading cards.
And do you know why?
No sports or sports betting
We weren’t just locked down, but sports had been canceled as well. No NBA, no NHL, MLB Opening Day was delayed. That meant our usual sports outlets were not available.
With sports canceled, ESPN’s “The Last Dance” documentary series about Michael Jordan and the Bulls took center court and provided a dose of 1990’s nostalgia. It also sent MJ’s card prices into a new stratosphere.
Other than that, we haven’t had much.
The sports betting bug many needed was also non-existent. Opening wax has been compared to gambling for many years because of the uncertainty of what is in a pack of cards. It could be an autograph card worth hundreds or a relic card worth a couple of bucks.
That boredom led many to seek out more info on trading cards, and also spend money on them.
No new wax
In March, card companies saw a slow down or a complete shutdown, which meant no new wax was hitting the market. States had varying stay-at-home orders, including Texas where the two biggest printing facilities are located.
With an undetermined timetable as to when these companies would be up and running again, there was a hole in the hobby. Weeks went by without any new product – except for what was being released in direct-to-consumer avenues like Topps Project 2020.
The art cards filled a void. The first several cards in Project 2020 sold fewer than 3,000 copies. It wasn’t until card No. 35 that the print run broke 10,000 copies for the first time. Mike Trout’s rendition by Andrew Thiele cracked the mark. Then, Ben Baller’s Mike Trout (Card No. 51) card hit 34,950 copies and the print runs crept up.
The secret was out.
It filled the void for collectors – and for Topps.
There are many who wanted to buy the cards to flip. Some people needed extra money because of lost jobs. This was a way to get money while not working.
And good news came around this time too. What better way to float your “investment” than with money from the government?
Stimulus checks
With the country dealing with a global pandemic and tens of millions of people out of work, the government sent stimulus checks of $1,200 to those who qualified. It was meant to help people buy groceries, pay the rent and hold them over for the next three to four months or more until jobs came back.
(Obviously, $1,200 wasn’t going to do all that.)
Yet many took that money and spent it on items that would bring a little joy – like trading cards. Or trading cards they could flip for extra cash.
Hype machine of news outlets
Without sports and sports betting, mainstream media outlets looked for compelling stories. Baseball cards, one of America’s favorite pastimes that always brings a flavor of nostalgia, was seeing a resurgence. Topps, the company that made its first big splash with masterpieces in 1952, suddenly seemed cooler and hipper by teaming with artists like Ben Baller, Sophia Chang and Mister Cartoon.
ESPN ran a big piece, The Athletic spent a week writing about trading cards and MLB.com featured the cards on its site. All of this made people feel as though cards were back and better than ever. Baseball cards weren’t just junk wax anymore. They were fantastic pieces of art that could be sold for hundreds – if not thousands – of dollars.
It was amazing.
FOMO
Seeing print runs creep up and the mainstream media outlets write about Project 2020, there was a real struggle of people not wanting to miss out on the next big thing.
This didn’t just lead to bigger print runs – with Ken Griffey Jr., card No. 88 hitting nearly 100,000 copies – but also people snagging cards off of eBay for a chance to resell them. They didn’t want to miss out on the potential value increasing with dollar signs lighting up their eyes.
But make no mistake. Project 2020 and the hype machine doesn’t happen without the artists.
Artists and their following
These seminal artists all made names for themselves outside of the trading card industry. Ben Baller is a jeweler to the biggest musicians in the world. Don C was a manager for Kanye West and the best man at his wedding.
Their followers saw the cards they were creating and realized they could get their art for a fraction of the price than it would normally cost, if they could get afford or have access to their work in the first place. Don’t underestimate the power of their fans because they move in circles that are bigger than the trading card world.
Where do we stand now?
Since that crazy week in May, prices have started to come down. Many people caught on to the hype and print runs have steadily been in five figures. These are wild numbers especially when you consider TOPPS NOW has been around for four years and very few cards have hit these levels.
Right now, Project 2020 cards are still released on Topps website every week day for just $19.99. There are still tens of thousands being sold because collectors are buying for many different reasons: to hold, to flip, to trade. In time, the cards could go back up in value as many have jumped off the bandwagon.
We don’t know what will happen, but we’ll always have that wild week in May.
-Sooz
Selling a Topps Project 2020 card on eBay is a roller coaster ride
By Dan Good
I can't remember the last time I sold a card.
Besides a few trades, I've kept everything — the commons and never-weres, the duplicates and hand-me-downs.
Nolan Ryan has been a central focus of my collection since the beginning. But since my collection only started at the tail end of his long career, a complete collection was all but impossible, so I’d pick up cards here or there that I liked instead of trying to get everything.
One such card was Nolan's first appearance in Topps Project 2020. On April 6, I bought card No. 18 on eBay for $19.59, and put it on my desk when it arrived a few weeks later.
The card, featuring artwork by Blake Jamieson, commemorates Nolan's first solo Topps card from the 1969 set. Jamieson's artwork is splashy and colorful, setting Ryan against a sea of orange. The cards are thick and they come in 130pt sticker-sealed cases.
My Nolan Ryan card isn't all that rare, with 2,623 copies produced, so I never looked at it as something inherently valuable.
Fast forward a month or so, and with all of the craziness around Project 2020 sales in late May, I decided to check its sales price on eBay.
$400?! $500?! $600?!
Everyone has a price, even someone who doesn't sell cards, and even if the card depicted my guy. I wasn't going to pass up $500 or more on something I bought on a whim for $19.59. With that kind of money, I could buy other cards — heck, I spent less than half that amount for a PSA 5 of the actual 1969 Topps card, #533.
I posted the card on eBay — my first auction as the seller — on May 25. After a few minutes the auction was live. I set it for seven days. Figured it would be fun to watch the price rise and rise and rise, a counterbalance and escape from all of the horrible stuff happening in the world.
Within an hour of the card getting posted, I had a bid — this thing was going to sell! I started the auction at $20 to ensure I'd break even, at the very least.
After one full day, on May 26, the auction was up to $156. How high would it go? At that point other copies of the same card were selling for $575-600. And mine was at $156 after 24 hours. It was a good start.
But the price of my auction stayed the same.
For one day.
Two days.
Three days.
At the same time, the sales price of other copies of the card started dropping. By May 28 the Ryan card was selling for about $400. One day later, $300. On May 30, it was selling in the $200-250 range. That's still solid ... a return 10 times the amount I paid for the card.
But on May 30 I received a notification:
eBay Bid Cancellation Notice - Item 153947524317
Dear eBay Community Member,
A previously entered bid on your item (153947524317) has been retracted or cancelled. You can view the retraction/cancellation and the reason provided by selecting the (bid history) link from the individual item page. As a result of this retraction/cancellation, there is a possibility that the high bid amount and the current high bidder have changed. You can always view the current status of any item by going to the individual item page. (Be sure to refresh or reload the page to view the most up-to-date information.)
Regards,
eBay
Oh no.
I looked for the details and was further disheartened. The $156 bid was retracted by user aconte. The explanation? "Entered wrong amount."
Surrrre ... I couldn't roll my eyes any harder at that suggestion.
While the second bidder initially went to $155, with the top bid gone, bidding on the card dropped all the way to $41 with about two days remaining. So, with my auction compromised by the empty bid, and with the market shifting, I decided to pull the plug.
I'm keeping the card — for now. It's back on my desk, a young happy Nolan ready to help the Mets win the World Series.
Maybe if the price on the card increases again above $350, I'll consider relisting it. If I do, it's going to have a Buy It Now option available, to hopefully avoid a similar scenario.
Poll of the Week
Do you collect relics? If so, what kind of relic piece do you prefer to see? Leave a comment.
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